A letter is known to have come from either TATANAGAR or CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters, TA, are visible. The probability that the letter has come from CALCUTTA is:
Explanation
Step 1: Define the Events
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Let E1: The letter came from TATANAGAR.
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Let E2: The letter came from CALCUTTA.
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Let A: The visible consecutive letters are TA.
Since it is equally likely for the letter to come from either city:
Step 2: Find the number of consecutive pairs in each word
To find the probability of seeing "TA", we count all possible pairs of consecutive letters.
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For TATANAGAR:
The pairs are: TA, AT, TA, AN, NA, AG, GA, AR.
Total pairs = 8
Number of "TA" pairs = 2 (at positions 1-2 and 3-4)
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For CALCUTTA:
The pairs are: CA, AL, LC, CU, UT, TT, TA.
Total pairs = 7
Number of "TA" pairs = 1 (at positions 7-8)
Step 3: Apply Bayes' Theorem
We need to find the probability that the letter came from CALCUTTA given that "TA" is visible (P(E2∣A)):
P(E2∣A)=P(E1)⋅P(A∣E1)+P(E2)⋅P(A∣E2)P(E2)⋅P(A∣E2)
Substitute the values:
P(E2∣A)=(21⋅41)+(21⋅71)21⋅71
Cancel the common factor of 21:
Step 4: Simplify the fraction
Calculate the denominator: 41+71=287+4=2811
Conclusion:
The probability that the letter has come from CALCUTTA is 4/11.
Correct Option: (a)